At the end of February, the United States and Israel went to war with Iran, a conflict that would have far-reaching consequences for the entire world. Ukraine responded immediately: Vladimir Zelensky to cautionAnd that Kyiv may face difficulties in obtaining missiles and weapons to defend the sky. Moreover, in the coming days, Ukrainian experts in intercepting drones He will go To the Middle East – to help Gulf states defend against Iranian attacks. Meduza continues to study how the two wars are connected, and is now discussing this topic with an advisor to Zelensky’s office, Mikhail Podoliak.
– What consequences does Kiev expect for itself due to the war between the United States and Israel with Iran?
– If we talk about positive strategic consequences, they are possible only if the campaign to destroy the Iranian regime ends successfully.
In my opinion, among them is the destruction of the global network of countries where Russia plays the role of mediator: it has financed instability in different regions. I mean Venezuela, Cuba, Iran and the entire unstable Middle East. The destruction of this entire column sharply weakens Putin’s room for maneuver and resource capabilities. In addition, in the long term, this will finally push Russia out of the global energy market.
Destroying Iran’s oppressive regime is extremely important because it is Russia’s primary partner. Through his engineering capabilities, he built the entire drone industry on which the Russian war against Ukraine was based. Production of drones in Russia. Russia is only now making some changes in the composition of their “Martyrs”, “Geraniums”. But Iran created them. For a long time, Iran transported drones across the Caspian Sea, which were then assembled in Tatarstan.
Another important consequence is the eventual collapse of Putin’s reputation. Yes, he will still be reckoned with in the Middle East. But when you discover Russian elements in the fragments of the same “martyrs” flying to or from Cyprus, it will likely change your view on what role Russia plays in all this, and whether it is necessary to continue to remain neutral. [по поводу российско-украинской войны].
There are also negative consequences. This is the extent of internal repression in Iran, and the number of murders to which its citizens are subjected. Let’s remember the recent protests – it’s just incredible (We are talking about retaliatory repression against demonstrators by the Iranian authorities – almost. “Jellyfish”). Such cannibals should be severely punished.
At the same time, there is an understanding that the war in Iran must reach its logical end, otherwise it will resume again within a year: the current regime will not change itself.
Other negative consequences of the campaign in Iran, if not prolonged, will be short-term: it is all about arms supplies. And here [Украине] Missile defenses are particularly important, although we have slightly different missile defense systems (Gulf states also use Patriot missiles and interceptor missiles to defend against Iranian strikes; Its final manufacturer is USA, approx. “Jellyfish”).
Another consequence of this is a speculative jump in oil prices in short futures contracts, and we are already seeing this jump. But I think it will come quickly.
– Is it necessary to punish “cannibals,” as you say, which is contrary to international law?
-Officially, this is the right question. But the point is that international law, unfortunately, was killed in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. It does not work.
In addition, Russia’s entry into Ukraine is radically different from the American-Israeli alliance’s entry into Iran. Ukraine did not provoke Russia. Ukraine has no territory. Ukraine did not announce what Iran announced: “Death to Israel,” “Death to America.” Ukraine did not have a huge number of short, medium and long-range missiles, nor did it fund terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas.
Unfortunately, international law, which was buried in Ukraine, also buried global institutions designed to ensure compliance with the rules of international law themselves. When it was violated in Ukraine, Russia should have been automatically isolated and its membership in all international organizations should have been suspended. The membership of the Security Council had to be withdrawn or suspended during the aggression. But that did not happen, which means that everyone at that moment decided by default that international law was selective and meaningless.
— Regardless of the illegal invasion of Ukraine [нападение на Иран] This is a violation of the country’s sovereignty. Many were afraid that Trump would make such a decision.
“Humanity must eventually accept the fact that World War III is already underway. Yes, it has changed. There are hot spots, such as in the Middle East and Ukraine, and there are a large number of hybrid outbreaks. Like any world war, it will lead to changes in the rules.”
Trump, thanks to his political deviance, has succeeded in accelerating many irreversible processes. For example, Europe is forced to become. The “let’s sit behind a rock and hope the storm passes by” attitude will lead everyone to tragedy. Now more and more European countries realize that they need to be proactive.
God willing, as a result of this war, it will be possible to reformulate international law, the global network of institutions and their tools to punish violators. [меджународного права]. And removing countries like Russia from world leaders. But, unfortunately, we are now living in a war.
— Why is the situation in Iran dangerous in the context of the supply of Patriot systems to Kiev by Western partners? What risks do you see?
— There is a risk of a slowdown in missile deliveries [в то время как] Russia continues its attacks on energy, water supplies, and now gas distribution. The main volume of transfers is from the facilities themselves [Киеву] Implemented by European countries that have these systems. European countries buy missiles for them [у США] Through the program.
The risk is that the logistics supply [Украине] I will slow down. But the problem here is not limited to the war in the Middle East. It is a problem of long discussions, accumulation of funds, decision-making and trade negotiations with the United States. That is, the speed of delivery of weapons of this type is affected by several factors. I believe that missile manufacturers, aware of their dominant market position and cost, will be interested in increasing production and sales.
But I hope we have [и стран Персидского залива] After all, different configurations of Patriot systems.
– What do you mean by different configurations?
— In Kuwait, Bahrain and Ukraine, Patriots are used – first, second, third and fourth generations.
In addition, the strikes of Israel and the United States are very effective: they deliberately destroy missiles and missile launchers. They have already destroyed a large amount of Iran’s accumulated reserves. This means that the war itself could continue, but Iran’s ability to strike different countries chaotically, as is the case now, will be reduced.
Of course, Iran can use other types of weapons. But such large-scale missile and drone attacks on neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf may no longer occur.
—Do risks arise for Kiev specifically in the scenario of prolonging the war in the Gulf?
“A long war poses a danger not only to us, but to the region above all. It is a matter of logistics, food supplies, and tourist routes (It passes through the international hub of Dubai and Doha – approx. “Jellyfish”) will cease to exist, like many oil and liquefied gas production facilities. This is a business that will fail. These are social consequences. Therefore, prolonging the war and closing the Strait of Hormuz for a long period is extremely harmful to everyone, including Europe. This means different prices, not only for energy, but also for products.
Ukraine depends like everyone else. But this will only happen if the war continues at the same level further. If it does not have such devastating consequences on logistics within the region, and thus on global energy markets, it will not seem as sad to us as proponents of apocalyptic scenarios expect.
There is another problem if the war in the Middle East is prolonged: information and diplomatic attention [которое сместится с темы Украины]. A year ago, everyone was completely focused on Iran for a few days, and the Ukraine topic was relegated to the sidelines. But now I don’t see such a trend.
– Is Kiev considering an unlikely, but still possible, scenario in which the war in Iran expands to European countries? Then this will affect the support of Western partners for Ukraine.
The war in Iran will not spread to European countries. When a missile or drone flies, it is not a full extension of war. Now the southern part of Europe will have to control its airspace. But the war itself, in the broadest sense of the word, will not get there.
– You mentioned the logical outcome of the war in Iran. What do you mean by this?
– Restructuring the government. In particular, the rejection of the ideological doctrine of strict Islamization, the opening of Iran to the global energy market, the complete reduction of the military complex, and the refusal to finance Hezbollah.
– Do you think this is real?
– Absolutely. The regime of the ayatollahs that existed has ended. He is insolvent. Just as the regimes of Kim Jong Un and Putin are indefensible. The fact that they still exist does not mean that they can exist indefinitely. It is a matter of resources and integration into global competitive relationships. All closed. They are unable to compete.
community [в Иране] Not indifferent, but resistant, and this must lead to change. The same thing happened in the late 1980s in the Soviet Union. And then irreversible processes begin. They cannot be stopped.
– Wall Street Journal published The opinion of European and Ukrainian negotiators is that the lack of interceptor missiles among Western countries could jeopardize peace negotiations between Kiev and Moscow. Western security guarantees for Ukraine include strengthening air defense in Kiev. What do people in the office think about this?
“It’s all about security guarantees – what they should look like, what investments will be made to ensure Ukraine has good missile, anti-missile and drone programmes, how much they will cost, who will be involved in them, and how the shares will be distributed – are being discussed with our partners, the US and Europe.
If necessary, this means that production will be increased through investment programmes.
– As far as I understand, if we are talking about air defense, the production is very simple. It is not easy to enhance production capacity.
– right. Production capacities should be clearly defined: who produces and how much, what will be purchased, what will be licensed for production in Ukraine or co-production, the schedule for receiving funds, and then the schedule for receiving a particular product. All this is just being discussed.
– That is, the situation in Iran has no impact on the prospects for negotiations?
– No, only from a logistical standpoint: the meeting has now been postponed because for security reasons it was traditionally held in Abu Dhabi.
He was interviewed Elizaveta Antonova