The war between the United States and Israel with Iran continues in its fourth week. On March 22, Donald Trump demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within two days, and threatened to bomb its energy infrastructure — leaving Iran without electricity.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has vowed to respond by striking the energy infrastructure of Israel and other US allies in the Middle East, as well as any energy facilities in the region owned by companies with US involvement.
Then Trump changed his mind
On March 23, shortly before the US ultimatum expired, Trump said that the United States and Iran “had very good and productive talks about the complete and final resolution of the conflict in the Middle East,” and so he decided to postpone strikes on Iranian power plants for five days.
It is not clear with whom exactly the negotiations took place in Iran. Before the war and in its first weeks, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, was responsible for foreign communications, including with the United States. But he was killed in an Israeli raid. The party to which his duties were transferred was not announced.
father Information The Jerusalem Post newspaper reported that the Iranian side in the negotiations is represented by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, and the American side is represented by Trump’s special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
What is the answer in Iran?
Iranian news agency Tasnim I mentioned Quoting a source in the Iranian security forces, there were no negotiations, and Trump “backed off” only because the Iranian strategy was successful. The strategy is to spread the damage of war to as many countries as possible, putting pressure on global markets – and thus pressuring Trump to stop striking Iran.
It appears that the original American-Israeli war plan has failed miserably. This is evidenced by Trump issuing ultimatums, moving additional forces to the Middle East, including 2,500 Marines, and preparations to send a third strike group to the region, led by the aircraft carrier George W. Bush (currently at a base in Norfolk, Virginia).
What was the original plan?
father Data The New York Times reported that it was based largely on the idea of Mossad, Israel’s foreign intelligence agency. Mossad Director David Barnea convinced first Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then the Donald Trump administration that after the killing of the Iranian regime’s leaders and massive attacks on military infrastructure, it would be possible to provoke an uprising against the Islamic Republic.
This calculation has not been met. Iran’s security forces – the army, police, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij militia, and intelligence agencies – maintain full control of the streets and effectively suppress any attempts to oppose the regime. Forces outside Iran that could wage an armed conflict against the Islamic Republic — primarily Kurdish militias based in Iraqi Kurdistan — have been slow to act. As a result, the regime was weakened abroad, but strengthened at home.
What should Trump do now?
The US President is now no longer thinking about regime change in Iran, but rather about how to lift the blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused a sharp rise in oil prices – and may lead to a crisis in the global economy. Trump talks about “productive conversations” with Iranian representatives and that the U.SApproaching To achieve all their goals and consider reducing the intensity of hostilities in the Middle East.” Obviously, such statements are directed primarily at the markets – hoping to calm them down and slow down the rise in prices.
Meanwhile, Trump is looking for a way to open the Strait of Hormuz. He calls on the Allies to send ships to protect shipping, but they refuse, and do not want to go to war. by Data POLITICO Trump has already given up on getting “kinetic action” from his allies and is willing to settle for at least verbal support for “measures for freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz” — again, hoping that will help calm the markets a bit.
How does Israel act?
There is a different approach to dealing with the “Hormuz problem” promoted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He insists on further escalation. On March 18, Israeli aircraft bombed the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf, apparently with the knowledge and approval of the United States. This field represents about 70% of Iranian gas production. All heating operations in Iran, as well as a large share of heating in Iraq and Turkey (exports there were suspended immediately after the strike), depend critically on this production.
Iran responded with attacks on gas companies in Qatar – and global gas prices immediately rose (Qatar accounts for about 20% of the entire global market). Iran clearly has no intention of abandoning the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: this is in fact its only remaining trump card, and it has played it successfully so far.
Iran threatens Europe
On March 21, Iran fired two missiles at the British-American air base in Diego Garcia on a small island in the middle of the Indian Ocean. They did not reach their goal: one fell into the sea, and the other was intercepted by an American destroyer. But the main effect of this measure is obvious It is composed In showing that Iran possesses missiles capable of covering a distance of four thousand kilometers.
Iran previously claimed that it was capable of producing missiles of this range, but it did not do so intentionally. The launch on March 21 represents a threat to European countries: if the United States and Israel help, they will face the same thing as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which are regularly subjected to missile attacks.
The threat is likely empty: Iran is unlikely to possess any significant stockpile of long-range missiles, and is unlikely to have the capacity to produce them in sufficient quantities to regularly bomb Europe and overwhelm its missile defense system. But Iran may have another goal: to convince Europe that the war must end as soon as possible.
What’s next?
To change the nature of the war, the United States and Israel may decide to launch a ground operation. So far, only a very limited invasion scenario is being discussed – the seizure of Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, where Iran’s largest oil terminal is located.
On March 23, Trump made clear that a diplomatic solution was possible. He said Witkopf and Kushner are negotiating with a high-ranking Iranian official (most likely Ghalibaf) — and agreements in principle have already been reached on most key issues. In particular, Iran allegedly agreed to abandon the development of nuclear weapons. However, Iran has always officially maintained that it is not developing it.
Iran said that the United States had only requested to negotiate with Ghalibaf, but had not yet received approval.