Iran has temporarily abandoned its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This happened after Israel had already concluded a truce with Tehran’s “proxy” – the Lebanese Hezbollah movement. According to a statement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry, the “opening” of the Strait will remain in effect as long as the truce remains in effect, that is, for at least another 10 days. Global oil prices have already fallen sharply, even though the strait has not yet been fully opened. The United States continues its blockade – which began on the evening of April 13 – on ships carrying Iranian goods, as well as ships entering Iranian territorial waters. Meduza explains why the Strait is open now, what could lead to it being closed again, and what to expect from further negotiations between Iran and the US this weekend.
Why is there a need for an American blockade over the Iranian blockade?
During the active phase of the war, the United States – despite tens of thousands of strikes on targets in Iran and the destruction of most of the country’s leadership and armed forces – was no closer to achieving the political goals of the war. This means the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, as well as changing the regime to a friendlier one.
Realizing the errors, the Trump administration developed Plan B. According to him, the United States could withdraw from the war, leaving Iran weak after attacks on military and civilian infrastructure. In this scenario, the Iranian regime would also be left without political gains in the form of control over the Strait of Hormuz, and thus over the global oil market.
The negotiated two-week truce and subsequent blockade of Iranian ports form part of the implementation of this plan. Below are the results of the four days of the American blockade:
- Despite strong statements by American politicians and military personnel, the blockade cannot be described as complete: cargo ships sometimes left Iran, and ships from abroad sometimes entered Iranian ports.
- The strait was partially opened even before the official announcement from Tehran. Only a small portion of shipowners have complied with Iranian regulations in recent days. In imposing the blockade, the United States announced that it would detain all ships leaving Iranian waters. And some listened: In recent days there have been ships, including oil tankers, leaving the Persian Gulf into the World Ocean south of the corridor indicated by Tehran.
- The total number of tankers leaving the Persian Gulf each day has remained virtually unchanged since the US blockade was announced. Moreover, it is an order of magnitude smaller.
It is likely that once Iran officially lifts its blockade, traffic will increase sharply. This will have a beneficial impact on the global economy. Oil shortages (up to a fifth of global consumption) threatened recession. Donald Trump’s administration may face domestic political problems due to inflation and voter dissatisfaction with an unnecessary war.
There is still a long way to go to achieve complete stability in the region. The truce officially ends on April 21, and the parameters of a treaty that could end the war have not yet been agreed.
Although the leaks indicate that the United States and Iran may compromise and return to something similar to what Tehran concluded with the Barack Obama administration in 2015. A similar agreement may be concluded for 20 years. But Trump has already said he’s not happy about it.
At the same time, the United States can negotiate from a position of strength: The Trump administration now has real leverage over Tehran.
The US blockade, even if relatively light, threatens a sharp deterioration in the economic situation in Iran and the accompanying social and political problems.
The question is how long the regime might last under conditions of restrictions on exports (and thus on imports). Negotiable. If Iran is unable to generate foreign exchange from oil sales, it will quickly lose its ability to pay for vital imports (especially grain supplies).
To make this pressure tool work faster and more effectively, the United States must do so a promise Expanding the blockade to include Iranian oil tankers already at sea (mainly in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Malacca off the coast of Malaysia and Indonesia).
But the regime in Tehran is known for its ability to adapt to sanctions and restrictions. Some experts Respondents The Economist believes that Iran will be able to withstand the siege for several months. Trump has little time: midterm congressional elections are scheduled for November in the United States, where the Republican Party may suffer defeat if the unpopular war continues.
Despite the pressures of the blockade, the United States cannot count on a complete diplomatic victory. Judging by Messages Western media, citing American, Iranian, and Pakistani sources, said that the parties are ready to reach a settlement, the result of which will be a “small victory” for the United States and Israel.
In this situation, Iran will not surrender, but it will not reap much political benefit from its stubborn resistance. At the same time, he will emerge from the war weak. This is entirely consistent with Israel’s grass-cutting strategy: a decisive victory is impossible without changing the Iranian regime, but it is possible that attacks on it will be repeated regularly as it grows stronger.
In addition, Trump can accelerate the process of achieving a “small victory” at any time. Two American destroyers had already entered the Persian Gulf for several hours before the blockade was announced. The American command called this “the beginning of mine clearance of the strait” (despite the fact that the destroyers are not equipped for mine clearance). Iran said it “dismissed” the ships with a radio message about an imminent attack.
The fact that the strait is already mined is Doubts. In addition, Iranian drones and missiles stationed on the coast pose a much greater threat than mines.
In one way or another, the passage of US warships through the “Iranian-controlled” strait could serve as a rehearsal for the future organization of armed convoys to escort tankers.
Is the blockade legal?
There are no generally accepted rules governing naval blockades of civilian shipping. From the point of view of customary international law, as reflected, for example, in the Charter of the United Nations, the establishment of such a blockade in peacetime is considered an act of aggression in all cases not involving self-defense.
Clearly, this is not a time for peace in the Persian Gulf. Although the war between the United States and Iran has not been officially declared, it has been going on for more than a month. So The question of the legitimacy of the siege goes back to the justification of the war itself. There are two extreme views on the nature of the conflict:
- Peaceful Iran has been subjected to unprovoked aggression by Israel and the United States.
- The United States acted in self-defense against the threat of an imminent Iranian attack.
It is clear that neither this nor the other extreme option corresponds to reality. The Cold War has continued to rage between the United States, Israel, and the regime in Tehran since 1979, when this regime emerged as a result of the Islamic Revolution.
All interpretations that fall between these two extremes are a matter of political taste. After the defeats of recent years, the Iranian regime is waging a war for survival. Israel, for which this is an existential conflict, is trying to gain a decisive advantage, but it is also prepared to repeat operations against Tehran and its allies as part of the strategy. Washington is an ally of Israel.
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The United States, which declared the blockade, tried to comply with the established rules London Declaration 1909 (by the way, optional). They identified the blockade areas (the entire coast of Iran), indicated that the restrictions would be random, that is, they would apply to ships flying any flags without exception, and also informed all interested countries of the blockade. In addition, the fleet entered the blockade zone, thanks to which the United States could implement restrictions “effectively” and not just in words – this was considered the main feature of the “correct” blockade for more than a hundred years.
Of course, any country could try to break the blockade, for example, by sending its warships to escort merchant ships. However, there are no people willing to do this yet.
Iran, which has effectively blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, has not attempted to comply with the terms of the London Agreement mentioned above. However, the lack of uniform and generally accepted rules does not allow Iran to be punished for its “misdemeanor.”
However, neither Iran nor the United States has ratified the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention, under which the Strait of Hormuz is considered a zone of free commercial navigation and cannot be closed.
How exactly does the US block Iranian shipping?
So far it has not reached violence. According to the US Fleet Central Command (responsible for operations in the Middle East), it was able to stop or redirect about twenty tankers and other ships traveling to and from Iran.
Countries published Videos of American helicopters taking off from destroyers and sending instructions to ship captains to head to alternative ports. In any case, the American fleet was limited to the “good word.” transmitted By radio – but with threats to put special forces on board the ships. Several tankers loaded with Iranian oil were forced to leave for Iranian territorial waters or to the docks of the Strait of Hormuz, where they remain to this day.
But after the truce was concluded, Iran also refrained from using force: an “unidentified munition” was fired at a merchant ship Pinned April 7 – and away from the Strait of Hormuz.
What will happen next?
The truce expires on April 21, but could still be extended. Iran and the United States, according to Western media reports, are willing to give up some of their final demands.
Trump dreams He speaksThat “deal” is close. The real American interest in concluding a treaty is confirmed by Trump’s efforts to achieve a truce between Israel and Iran’s Hezbollah “proxies” in Lebanon. This is exactly what Tehran set as a precondition for starting negotiations.
Iran, judging by the fact that it has given up (temporarily for now) its main tool of pressure on Washington – effective control of the Strait of Hormuz – also wants to end the war.
In the event of a new failure of the negotiations, the United States remains the strong solution to the Strait of Hormuz problem. During the truce, the American fleet mobilized its forces (reaching the Arabian Sea More than ten destroyers To combat Iranian drones and missiles), as well as landing ships with marines for possible landing on the Iranian coast. Maybe in the area too They are coming And specialized ships for mine clearance.
It is clear that such forces are excessive in organizing a blockade of Iranian ports. But it is sufficient to resume the movement of merchant ships of pre-war sizes with the help of convoys. If Iran tries to block shipping again and continues to insist on collecting fees from ship owners.
However, the military operation is extremely risky: any successful Iranian strike on oil tankers from the convoy could lead to all international shipowners refusing to participate in the American adventures. Naturally, this will have a very negative impact on Donald Trump’s domestic political prospects.
In addition, Iran still has tools to increase the level of escalation: from attempts to block shipping in the Red Sea by Yemeni allies to attacks on the energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf states.
But judging by the concentration of naval forces in the Middle East, Washington is willing to accept all these risks.
“Analysis” section