Since February 24, 2022, Meduza has been broadcasting live about the Russian-Ukrainian war. We publish your messages every day because we are certain that we need to keep talking about war. Share with us your thoughts about war. What emotions are you feeling? How does war affect your life and your attitude to the world? If you have a war story, tell it. The feedback form is at the end of this article. You can read the previous day’s review here.
Ukraine
Geopolitics JPMorganChase published a report (.pdf) with five scenarios for the future of Ukraine. According to analysts, the large-scale Russian-Ukrainian war will most likely end according to the “Finnish scenario.” The report’s authors consider this scenario to be the basic and most likely scenario at the present time (50%).
The “Finnish scenario” is essentially a repeat of Finland’s path before it joined NATO. In 1944, the Soviet Union owned about 10% of its territory, and for decades it maintained its sovereignty and orientation toward the West, despite the lack of official Western security guarantees and the presence of foreign forces on its territory. In 2022, after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, Finland joined NATO.
“Although no analogy is perfect, we see a similar outcome for Ukraine – one in which Western sovereignty and orientation are maintained, but the world does not become completely fair or safe,” the report’s authors point out.
The “Finnish” option, according to JPMorgan Chase, would look like this: Ukraine gives up part of its territory, but retains its sovereignty and strategic direction. The country is rebuilding its army, investing in industry, and gradually integrating into Europe economically and politically. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s formal membership in NATO remains impossible in the near future. Kiev may also have to exercise some “strategic restraint” so as not to provoke Moscow. But over time, Ukraine will strengthen its deterrence capabilities and deepen its orientation toward the West – eventually joining the European Union and perhaps NATO in the coming decades.
The first report including scenarios for Ukraine’s future was presented by the JPMorgan Chase Center for Geopolitics in 2025. At that time, analysts considered the “Georgian option” to be the primary option for Ukraine. Under this option, in their opinion, Ukraine, after the war with Russia, will not receive reliable security guarantees, will remain unstable – and over time will find itself in the Russian sphere of influence. Now, the analysts themselves note that they are reviewing their base scenario “for improvement.” JPMorgan Chase now estimates the Georgia scenario at 30%.
Among other scenarios, as last year, “Belarus” and “South Korea” are considered the least likely (5% each) – the worst and best scenario for Ukraine. The probability of the “Israel” scenario is estimated in the new report at 10%. Here is a brief description of each of them:
- “Belarus”. The United States is ending its support for Ukraine, and Europe cannot compensate for the departure of a key ally. Russia wins the war, achieves its extreme demands, effectively turns Ukraine into a satellite state, and divides the West as well.
- “Israel”. Ukraine receives long-term military and economic support from the United States without the presence of foreign forces on its territory. It will have to remain a military state, constantly ready for a new war.
- “South Korea”. Ukraine is seeking NATO membership or security guarantees from the United States. European forces are stationed on its territory to contain Russia. In this scenario, the 80% of Ukraine’s territory, which remains under Kiev’s control, would receive a stable and democratic development path. The war with Russia, like the conflict between North and South Korea, remains frozen.
As the report’s authors note, the outcome of the war could be changed by a number of factors, many of which are not in Ukraine’s favor. For example, an evolving conflict with Iran could divert the West’s attention, resources, and political capital at a critical time for Kiev.
War in pictures. A memorial near a house in Kyiv destroyed by a Russian raid
War through the eyes of Medusa readers
Medusa’s readers live in different countries and have different attitudes toward war. We publish your messages to see this event through your eyes. Our editors try to represent all viewpoints, even if they do not match the editorial position. However, in accordance with the Medusa Law, we do not publish messages that contain “hate speech,” justify the killing of civilians, or express direct support for an aggressive war.
Nadezhda (Russia). I am an adult, from the Soviet Union. She lived in the sacred confidence that Russians and war were incompatible at the genetic level. This means that both now and at the beginning they did not support this bad war and the bad guarantor.
The country has turned into a mere ***. There is no industry (except for the military-industrial complex at the moment), and no agriculture. Complete dependence on imports. We are working to boost the Chinese economy. But they decided to teach another sovereign nation how to live. Honestly, if I had the chance, I would leave the country – and I’m not sure I’d miss the Russian birches. I’m afraid to realize that we are killing people and dying ourselves. It is even more painful because it is not clear when and how all this will end. Devastated communities, dead citizens, mutilated participants, when and if they return, [неизвестно] What will they give us? We will be hated for a very long time, and our children and grandchildren will not be able to wash. For what purposes?
The Z position taken by many Russian citizens is even more surprising. People, don’t you see what’s happening? Quite the opposite of the declared objectives have been achieved. How do you live with this?