The internal political crisis in Ukraine continues. The resignation of the head of the President’s Office, Andrei Ermak, and the appointment of Kirill Budanov to his post did not ultimately solve the accumulated problems. The power column remains shaken by upcoming theoretical elections and anti-corruption investigations. In parallel, a reboot in power is taking place, within the framework of which new young people are being attracted to leadership positions. Ukrainian journalist Konstantin Skorkin material The Carnegie Politika Project talks about what’s happening in the Ukrainian government after Ermak’s departure. Medusa publishes this text in full.
What happened in the three months after Ermak’s resignation?
More than three months have passed since Ermak’s departure, but there have been no major changes in the work of the President’s Office. The new head of the office, Kirill Budanov, is little involved in internal politics, leaving it to his deputy, Oleg Tatarov, who inherited it from his predecessor. Tatarov, who worked in the Interior Ministry under Yanukovych I got busy The regional leadership was purged of Ermak’s followers, with members of the police and other law enforcement agencies now increasingly holding positions in civilian military departments.
Budanov has so far retained the other deputies appointed by Ermak in their positions. The new head of the office tries not to undermine the existing mechanism, as he willingly delegates powers. Gone are the times when employees had to wait a long time to get a decision from Ermak, who took over all operations.
Budanov is mainly occupied with peace negotiations. But if Ermak tries to take full control of the process, the new head of the office is ready to coordinate his work with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Parliament. Formally to the negotiating group behind The head of the Servant of the People faction is David Arakhamia, who has experience in the 2022 negotiations and has made contacts with the Americans and some Russian mediators such as Roman Abramovich.
The return of Arakhamia also shows that the Ukrainian parliament, previously under the strict control of the Office of the President, is gradually regaining its subjectivity. In general, the range of orientations and opinions in the negotiating delegation has become more diverse, as evidenced by many LeaksUntil the participants appear. Budanov’s civilian uniform contrasted sharply with the clothing of other delegates who still adhered to the military style.
The new head of the office has been able to achieve some success. Negotiations with Russia temporarily moved from the realm of historical disputes to a practical level, and the military sat down to talk to the military. The collapse of the dialogue was avoided even after that Assassination attempts Against the first deputy head of Russian military intelligence, General Vladimir Alekseev, whose involvement Ukraine denies.
It is true that Vladimir Medinsky returns to the head of the Russian delegation He bears witnessAnd that the “Polovtsians and Pechenegs” who angered everyone constitute an essential form of political settlement for the Kremlin. Ukraine must not only accept Putin’s terms, but also agree with the justice of his historical claims. It is not entirely clear what even the strongest negotiators would be against.
About the situation in the Ministry of Defense and other law enforcement agencies
The changes also affected Ukraine’s law enforcement agencies. One of the most important was the appointment of Mikhail Fedorov, a young technocrat who was supposed to introduce innovative approaches to the ministry, to the position of Minister of Defense. The new minister has already presented a number of high-level statements Data (For example, calling for “killing 50,000 occupiers a month”) and attract Popular personalities work in the Ministry – volunteers (blogger Sergey Sternenko) and innovative leaders (UAV specialist and also blogger Sergey Peskrestny).
This approach is reminiscent of the personnel policy initially pursued by the Ministry of Defense in Donbass in 2014-2015, when representatives of the public and army candidates were invited to work in the Ministry. Then, among other things, the political career of David Arakhamia began, from He replied To communicate with army volunteers.
In the second half of the 2000s, this renewal drive faded, and was crushed by conservative generals. A similar outcome is not excluded now – the current Commander-in-Chief Alexander Sersky is skeptical Applicable The young minister and his initiatives. It is rumored that Fedorov in turn the pressure Change of commander in chief.
However, the main task of the new head of the Ministry of Defense is to reduce the level of negativity in Ukrainian society regarding mobilization, and to make its implementation as transparent and fair as possible under the circumstances. loss Front reinforcements. The minister himself I confessTwo million draft evaders are wanted.
The ministry has not yet developed a clear strategy on how to achieve this, but increasing the number of contract workers is already being discussed. In a country economically torn by war, there are likely to be many people willing to fight for money. Another thing is that Ukraine does not have the necessary financial reserves for this. Zelensky He believesEurope should help in this matter, however Prospects This help is more than vague.
Complex operations are also conducted in other law enforcement agencies. During the next reset, President Zelenskyy beheaded both major intelligence services: GUR head Budanov went to the president’s office, and SBU head Vasily Malyuk resigned amid accusations of involvement in lobbying independent anti-corruption bodies.
Sudden personnel decisions can only destabilize departmental leadership. To this day, the State Security Service does not have a fully qualified president. Acting Chief of the Special Service Yevgeny Khamara famous Such a good customer (is He was Commander of the Alpha Special Forces), but he is an inexperienced commander and relies on deputies.
The change of leadership in military intelligence was not without problems. The new head of the department Oleg Ivashchenko at once I paid Ermak to this position in order to get rid of Budanov, so now people from Budanov’s team are not happy tangible Appointment of a new president. Although Ivashchenko belongs to the same structure, he previously headed the Foreign Intelligence Service.
The turmoil in Ukrainian politics is linked not only to cabinet reshuffles, but also to investigations, as well as possible elections.
The problems associated with personnel changes pale in comparison to the ongoing anti-corruption purges. In February, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau arrested former Energy Minister German Galushenko as he attempted to leave the country. Under his leadership, the department of the state company Energoatom was created a corruption scheme linked to a friend of the president, Timur Mendić.
The detention of Galoshenko could not but worry the authorities. On the one hand, it is known about his connections with the inner circle of the president – in addition to Mendic, this is the former first assistant to the president Sergei Shefir (also co-founder of Kvartal 95), pressure At one time Galoshenko was appointed Minister.
On the other hand, Galoshenko accused He is the man of Andriy Derkach, once the long-time secretary of the Ukrainian nuclear industry and now one of Russia’s top dissidents, who has secured a seat in the Federation Council. The possible combination of charges on two lines at once – corruption and treason – creates increasing tension around the trial.
In addition, Galoshenko’s arrest may not be the last. Also in publications of anti-corruption bodies Mentioned Ermak himself, and former presidential aide Sergei Shefir have already done so Leave nation. Clouds are gathering around one of the president’s longtime acquaintances — the former head of Ukraine’s Security Service, Ivan Bakanov, who is also… accused In corruption. The investigation continues against Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustam Umarov.
The turmoil at the summit is exacerbated by rumors of imminent elections. However, the previous taboo on the subject has been lifted: no elections until the end of the war. Zelensky still links holding elections to a long-term ceasefire, but the format of the potential vote is already being discussed in the Ukrainian parliament.
Within Ukrainian society there is a growing number of those who supports Hold a vote as soon as possible – if at the beginning of 2025 78% of participants were in favor of holding elections only after signing a peace treaty, by the end of the year their share dropped to 59%. But the number of those who believe that elections are possible even with a temporary ceasefire increased from 9% to 23%.
Anticipation of the elections invigorated not only opposition veterans, but also one of the leaders of opinion polls – the former Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zalozhny. Having previously avoided open confrontation with the president, Zalozny capitulated interviewIn which he criticized Zelensky, accused him of exerting pressure, and in fact held him responsible for the failure of the counter-offensive in 2023.
This approach does not fit well with the current ambassador to London, but it is well suited for a future presidential candidate. The opposition has already taken advantage of Zalozny’s rally – the camp of former President Petro Poroshenko has begun to raise tensions. advertisementthat an assassination attempt was allegedly being prepared on Zalozhny, and he was leaving for London to save the life of the former Supreme Commander.
It is true that without a clear timeline for voting, political competition heats up and then quickly fades away. The same Zalozny, immediately after making harsh statements against Zelensky, chose to avoid asking a direct question about presidential ambitions. Talk about possible elections remains just talk, while the main question for Ukraine is the choice between continuing the war and the difficult settlements that Moscow is trying to impose. The answer will predetermine the further development of domestic policy.