With the Kansas City Chiefs’ first game of the 2023 season now less than a week away, Covers.com and analyst Jason Logan put together a full betting odds breakdown for KC and its players — loaded with statistical information on trends, advice and predictions.
While the entire preview offers knowledge on spreads, the schedule, key betting factors and more, Patrick Mahomes II was front and center in the player props section. The reigning MVP opens up at +600 odds all across the board to go back-to-back and win the league’s Most Valuable Player award once again.
He’s also +250 to lead the NFL in passing yardage at FanDuel Sportsbook according to Covers, but has a better payout in that area at Caesars Sportsbook (+400). For passing touchdowns, those odds flip-flop at +350 with FanDuel and +300 for Caesars. DraftKings Sportsbook is actually currently offering the lowest payout on Mahomes leading the league in passing TDs at +275 — which is the odds they set for passing yardage as well.
Logan’s “best prop” for Mahomes was a prediction fans might disagree with: Under 37.5 passing touchdowns (-115 odds on Caesars).
“Season-long projections for Mahomes have his TD total bouncing between 36 and 37 passing scores, but I believe the Chiefs won’t need him to shoulder the load as much in 2023,” the Covers analyst explained. “If the defense can tighten up in the second half, the pace of this offense can slow down and protect the lead.”
Logan added that the return of Matt Nagy at offensive coordinator could also impact this bet, being that the Chiefs “ranked 10th in rushing yards” last time Nagy was OC.
NFL Betting Odds Analyst Says Chiefs WR Skyy Moore ‘Has No Limits’ in 2023
Outside of Mahomes, the other Chiefs player that received a lot of focus was second-year wide receiver Skyy Moore — who many expect to take a year two leap under Andy Reid.
Fellow Covers betting analyst Josh Inglis wrote that Moore “has no limits” this season, reasoning: “Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have changed the defensive blueprint of the entire NFL over the last couple of years as seemingly every team has adapted to keeping safeties deep and playing cover defense. Well, the two have responded as Mahomes has become a QB who takes what the defense gives him and unsurprisingly excels no matter what is coming at him.”
“Mahomes finished 2022 with career-highs in completion percentage (67.1%) and 5,250 yards, which also led the league,” Inglis went on. “All of this came after finishing 23rd in air yards per attempt. That leaves second-year WR Skyy Moore to soak up a lot of those underneath and intermediate targets that are even more available with Juju Smith-Schuster (101 targets last year) gone.”
As a supporting argument, he added that “Kadarius Toney can’t stay on the field and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a field stretcher with drop issues.” All of this led Inglis to conclude that “Moore is in a great spot to top his reception total of 40.5 catches as a No. 2 in an offense that could have 440 completions on the year.”
Covers Likes Chiefs’ Odds to Win AFC, Opening Up Home vs Lions
While this betting preview has a lot more to offer, one final prediction we’ll note was Logan’s “best [KC] futures bet.” The Covers analyst liked the Chiefs to win the AFC once again at +350 (FanDuel, DraftKings and Caesars).
“Kansas City has the best player in the league and arguably the best coach as well,” Logan voiced. “The last time a team paired those pinnacles together, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were trying to find space on the mantle for their sixth Lombardi Trophy.”
“The Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid combo is better than the other top contenders in the AFC,” he continued, “especially with turmoil in Buffalo, Joe Burrow’s injury concerns in Cincy, Aaron Rodgers unknowns in New York, and the Chargers owning their own page in the urban dictionary for ‘Chargering’.”
Logan noted that he’s actually less confident in AFC West odds or taking the Chiefs Over 11.5 wins, but will always trust in their ability to outlast the competition in “big games.” Their 2023 journey begins on Thursday night against the Detroit Lions — where they open up with a -6.5-point spread.
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