Putin can’t go back – DW – 21/09/2022

Published by
Peter Kavinsky
Vladimir Putin announces partial mobilization in Russia, September 21, 2022Photo: Russian Presidential Press and Information Agency/Russian Look/Photo Alliance

Putin has no turning back. If he loses the war against Ukraine, it will cost him power, and maybe even more. In the same situation, members of the government of the Russian Federation and deputies of the State Duma – both in joy and sorrow – find themselves with the current owner of the Kremlin. They are in a panic. Against the background of the successes of Ukraine, which is reclaiming its territory, Russia is threatening military defeat. Something no one in Moscow expected.

So Putin is now announced a “partial” mobilizationhe wants send 300 thousand forward reservists. They must stop the Ukrainian offensive, an offensive that testifies to the desperate situation of the Russian army.

Weak and isolated?

A few days ago – behind the scenes of the top Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Uzbekistan – Putin relaxedly stated that Russia does not need to rush in Ukraine. In reality, the world saw a weakened, isolated Putin. Television cameras showed a very elderly man, who other heads of state and government were waiting for. Putin sat obediently on the couch and listened to what they had to say.

Turkey, India and even China have made it clear publicly that they do not support Putin’s war and prefer Ukraine’s territorial integrity. And for good reason: this war puts a burden on the global economy and weakens the politicians whose support Putin relied on during the war.

Miodrag Shoric

According to the Kremlin, this cannot continue. Therefore, Putin rushed back to Moscow to change course. In fact, “partial” mobilization is: acknowledgment of Russia’s failure and military weakness in eastern Ukraine. Within days of the announcement of the “vote” on joining the occupied territories with Russia, it became clear that the Ukrainians do not want to be part of Russia. Yes, and voting at gunpoint, a referendum in ruins, no one in the world will be taken seriously.

Putin wants to protect his prey. According to his plan, the conquered Ukrainian territories should become part of the Russian Federation. Then, using all military means, he will call for the defense of the fatherland. From a “special military operation” whose execution would be limited to a certain place and time and would have little impact on the reality of ordinary Russians, it will be rhetorical by any means and even with the help of nuclear weapons.

The end of the “special operation”

It doesn’t take a prophet to predict that the idea of ​​a “special military operation” will soon disappear. Kremlin propaganda will bury him. Instead, even crazier lies, new fabrications, threats through the state-controlled media will aim to indoctrinate the Russians. It’s already been claimed that Russia is not waging war against Ukraine?, but protects Ukraine from the US and UK. Anyone who wants to believe in it – believes.

The new escalation of Putin’s world leaders, now gathered at the UN General Assembly in New York, will be taken seriously. But their policy towards Moscow is unlikely to change. Kiev will continue to receive weapons, the Ukrainian army will continue to fight. And 300 thousand Russian reservists? They have never been to war, they are ill equipped. These are the fathers of families, men who are against their will taken out of their ordinary life.

In Ukraine, they have to defend Russia – along with prisoners and Chechen mercenaries. It won’t lead to anything good. They will see with their own eyes that Ukraine does not want to belong to Russia. Tens of thousands of men will die so that Putin and his entourage can stay in power and not hold the people accountable for their crimes. This is the tragedy of the miscalculation of the Kremlin owner.

Posted by Miodrag Shoric, columnist for DW

The commentary reflects the author’s personal opinion. It may not correspond to the opinion of the Russian editors and Deutsche Welle in general.

Also see:

Why does Putin need martial law?

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Peter Kavinsky

Peter Kavinsky is the Executive Editor at cablefreetv.org

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