At the beginning of 2026, the Russian economy was fully affected by the consequences of the war with Ukraine and Western sanctions, writes Mikhail Zygar. Budget revenues began to decline, production declined, and foreign trade began to shrink (Russia was forced to sell oil to India at $22 per barrel – about a third of the market price). Lending – and thus business development – has practically stopped.
Zigar writes that until recently, Putin ignored all signs of a deteriorating economic situation in Russia. But in February 2026, he began to care about them – and to think about getting out of the conflict. According to Zygar, the replacement of the main negotiator with the United States on the “Ukrainian issue” was discussed – instead of the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev, it was to be the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin, a long-time close associate of Putin. Moreover, as Zygar wrote, there were rumors about a change of government.
According to Meduza’s sources, the Kremlin has no plans to make peace with Ukraine. In particular, the political bloc of the Russian presidential administration is preparing for the Duma elections, scheduled for September, on the basis of the idea that the war will continue with the same intensity. On March 24, at a meeting of the Russian Association of Political Consultants, Boris Rapoport, Deputy Head of the Kremlin Department of Social Surveillance, foot The main theses of the Duma campaign for “United Russia”. One of them sounded like this: “The convincing victory of the United Russia party in the elections brings the victory closer to the front.”
None of this happened because of the American and Israeli attack on Iran. What followed was Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, higher oil prices, and even a temporary easing of sanctions on Russian oil in order to stabilize the global market. Disagreements escalated between the United States and many of its allies, who, despite direct calls from US President Donald Trump, did not want to participate either in the war with Iran or in protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Russian-Ukrainian war has faded into the background of the political and media agenda. There is an assumption that Ukraine will now receive less weapons from Western countries.
In addition, Zygar notes that the Kremlin expects the Republican Party to lose congressional elections in the fall, including because of the unpopular war with Iran. This would weaken Trump – and confirm Vladimir Putin’s idea that the US president is a transitional figure, so you can always wait for him to change and start negotiating again.
However, Zygar continues, people close to the Russian leadership understand that all this is likely just a temporary relief. The journalist writes that they are awaiting the Duma elections in September with remarkable nervousness. The authorities ban telegrams and try to isolate Russia from the Internet. According to Zygar, Putin will soon have to choose: either agree to at least some form of calm in Ukraine, or increase pressure on Russian society, leading to a new mobilization. The journalist concludes that his decision will also be influenced by American actions towards Iran.
Meduza Publishing House published the book by Mikhail Zygar “The Dark Side of the Earth” – about the last years of the existence of the USSR. You can buy it here.
Andrei Burtsev participated in the preparation of the material