The highest numbers since 2008 are officially boring and other news

Published by
Peter Kavinsky

Since inflation data was released last week, mortgage rates have climbed to new 14-year highs every single day — not even “almost” every day, but every last. So we’re declaring the highest rates since 2008 boring! Old news! Try something else, why not?!

The caveat is that we’d rather bets don’t delve into their past repertoire to find even a long-term high. But even then it does not depend on our preferences, entreaties or hopes. It depends on economic data, the Fed, and the economy’s ability to weather what has already been the most aggressive policy backtracking in decades.

Tomorrow the Fed will make one of eight announcements of the year. The September announcement is one of 4 that are released along with updated rate hike forecasts from each member of the Fed. Although Fed Chairman Powell repeatedly reminded the market not to give too much importance to these forecasts, no one heeded.

In other words, the forecasts will exacerbate any volatility that we may have already seen in connection with tomorrow’s decision to raise the interest rate. Also, Powell’s press conference (which starts 30 minutes after the announcement and predictions) can always add additional volatility. The festivities will begin at 2:00 pm ET.

In terms of today’s specifics, the average lender (everything below refers to averages. Individual offers can vary widely for a variety of reasons) lists the usual top-tier matching rates in the mid-6s. The actual quotation level is highly dependent on the inclusion of upfront costs and/or “points”. Rates of 6.125% can still be obtained with sufficient upfront costs paid by the borrower. With minimal upfront costs, this is more like 6.625%. This suggests a pretty flawless scenario.

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Peter Kavinsky

Peter Kavinsky is the Executive Editor at

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