Negotiations between the United States and Iran are scheduled to begin today in Islamabad. They were attended by Vice President J.D. Vance and Special Presidential Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
The talks will be indirect and will take place at the Serena Hotel in the government district of the Pakistani capital. According to the plan, the Americans and Iranians will take turns meeting with the Pakistanis (Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Chief of General Staff Asim Munir), who will act as mediators. The main character is Munir: he was the one who, at the end of March 2026, conducted contacts with the leadership of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and ensured communication between the two parties. This led to a ceasefire and an agreement to begin negotiations.
Even the day before, it was not clear whether these negotiations would take place in principle. The United States and Iran announced their terms for the peace agreement in advance — and they turned out to be mutually exclusive on many issues.
The US 15-point peace plan has not been officially published, but… Leaks It is known that it is in itself Includes:
- Complete cessation of uranium enrichment in Iran.
- Transfer of Iranian reserves of highly enriched uranium under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (this is more than 400 kilograms – allegedly located under the rubble of a bombed nuclear facility in Isfahan),
- Monitoring Iranian nuclear facilities
- Iran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons
- Imposing severe restrictions on Iran’s missile program, both in terms of the number of missiles and the development of long-range missiles that can reach Europe and America,
- Iran will cease its support for its proxies, primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Yemen, and Kataib Hezbollah and other similar groups in Iraq,
- Immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz to free navigation,
- Gradual lifting of US sanctions on Iran, including freezing its assets abroad.
In addition, it is known that the United States will seek the release of Americans detained in Iran. by Data Washington Post, there are at least six of them and Iran is using them as hostages and leverage in negotiations.
The Iranian plan is quite realistic reverse American:
- Recognizing Iran’s right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.
- International monitoring of nuclear installations on the general basis provided for in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,
- Complete lifting of sanctions and freezing of all assets,
- compensation for the destruction caused by the war,
- Guarantees of non-aggression against Iran by the United States and Israel, including the United Nations Security Council resolution,
- Withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East,
- Recognizing Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and its right to regulate shipping there and collect transit fees.
It is clear that in both cases we are talking about extreme starting positions. But both sides see themselves as winners of the war, and neither has yet shown a willingness to reach a settlement. Thus, the first round of negotiations in Islamabad will likely be the last: the parties will be convinced that it will not be possible to reach an agreement, and then the only way out of the impasse will be to resume hostilities.
Muhammad Baqir Qalibaf upon his arrival in Islamabad male“We have good intentions, but no trust [к американцам]“The day before Subtract There are two preconditions for the start of negotiations: a ceasefire in Lebanon, and the freezing of Iranian assets under international sanctions.
Donald Trump – apparently reacting to Ghalibaf’s terms – male“It seems that the Iranians do not realize that they no longer have any cards in their hands except to blackmail the world in the short term using international waterways. They are now only alive to negotiate!” This is an indication that Israel was prepared to kill Qalibaf and Araghchi, as it had previously killed many high-ranking Iranian officials and military personnel, but Unlikely Both of them are on the list of targets at the insistence of the United States, as partners in the negotiations.
Meanwhile, inside Iran, according to Data According to the opposition newspaper Iran International, there is no agreement that Ghalibaf represents the unified position of the regime and that he is generally authorized to make crucial decisions in the negotiations.
In fact, the most powerful man in Iran now is the Supreme Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Brigadier General Ahmed Vahidi. But the United States cannot afford to deal with him, because it officially considers the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to be an international terrorist organization.
Vahidi is in constant conflict with Ghalibaf (an IRGC national, but now a civilian official) and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (who never served in the IRGC) over power, the mandate to negotiate with the United States, and many other issues. The general constantly defends the most extreme positions and refuses to compromise with the United States – especially regarding the Iranian missile program, which he considers the most important guarantee of the country’s defense capacity.
Before negotiations begin, the situation in Lebanon is considered the main obstacle. After declaring a ceasefire, Israel continued a large-scale military operation against the pro-Iranian Lebanese Hezbollah group. Five Israeli army divisions operate in southern Lebanon, and the Israeli Air Force carries out raids on Lebanese cities, including the country’s capital, Beirut.
Iran insists that the ceasefire must extend to Lebanon. Israel and the United States do not recognize this condition.
On April 9, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the imminent start of direct negotiations with Lebanon and the possible normalization of relations in the future. The first round is scheduled to be held in Washington on April 14, in which the ambassadors of Israel and Lebanon to the United States will participate, and the American ambassador to Lebanon will play the role of mediator.
Three days before that, Israel is expected to announce, if not a complete ceasefire in Lebanon, then at least a cessation of attacks on Beirut. In addition to the Israeli Ambassador to the United States, Yehiel Leiter maleIsrael will not stop firing against Hezbollah and will not discuss this possibility in the negotiations.
In this case, everyone is playing a double game. Iran is not negotiating with Israel, but is in fact demanding that the United States force it into a ceasefire. Israel, in turn, is not negotiating with Hezbollah, but with the Lebanese government, which has almost no influence on Hezbollah and is generally openly hostile to it. The Lebanese government does not officially recognize the State of Israel – but in fact acts as a circumstantial ally in the war against Hezbollah, which controls much of Lebanese territory (including part of the Beirut-based Shiite Dahiya area).
The Lebanese issue appears to be one of the most difficult issues in these negotiations, and it is unlikely that without discussing it, the United States and Iran will be able to agree on at least a fragile peace.