US President Donald Trump is preparing for a major escalation in the war against Iran. He promises to give the Iranians “hell” and “a return to the Stone Age” if they do not end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Additional US forces, including paratroopers and Marines, were deployed to the Middle East. Combined with military personnel already stationed in the region, the number of US forces amounts to tens of thousands of people – clearly not enough for a large-scale ground invasion, but enough for targeted operations such as the seizure of strategic islands. In order to open the Strait of Hormuz, the United States can conduct naval operations in the Strait itself and in the Arabian Gulf.
As for the “hell” promised by Trump, we are most likely talking about attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Trump began his rhetorical escalation on March 21 books On Truth Social, Iran is given 48 hours to open the strait, otherwise the United States “will destroy its power plants, starting with the largest.”
Until recently, the United States only launched strikes on military targets. But sometimes they hit civilians by mistake. Among these mistakes was the raid on a school in Minaba on the first day of the war on February 28, which resulted in the deaths of 180 people, most of them girls under the age of 12.
Iran’s petrochemical and other industrial facilities, university research centers where nuclear weapons and missiles were developed, and even the cybersecurity office of a bank serving the Islamic Republic’s armed forces were also targeted. But all of these strikes were not attributed to the United States, but rather to its main ally in this war, Israel.
And now Trump is publicly threatening to bomb critical infrastructure — if not purely civilian, then at least dual-use: power plants also power military bases and military production facilities. The destruction of the bridge at Kerridge on April 2 was the first time it had been directly destroyed by Trump I confess US responsibility for striking a civilian target.
On March 23, the US President extended the ultimatum for five days. He said that the United States had had “very good and productive negotiations” with Iran, and there was hope for a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
It soon became clear that no negotiations had actually taken place. It’s just that the mediators (primarily Pakistan) managed to establish contacts with the Iranian military leadership – and the two sides exchanged their demands. These demands turned out to be mutually exclusive, and hope for reaching a settlement quickly disappeared.
On March 26, when the new deadline was already approaching, Trump came back again extended The deadline this time is April 6. The president wrote that he was doing so “at the request of the Iranian government,” with whom “negotiations continue, despite false claims by the fake news media and others.” Among the “others” was the Iranian government itself: it has always stressed that it is not conducting any negotiations with the Americans.
Trump set a new deadline – which now appears final – of April 5. His next post on Truth Social read: “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day in Iran. You’ve never seen anything like this!!! Open the damned strait.” (Originally – damned strait – note “jellyfish”)You crazy bastards, otherwise you will live in hell.” This was followed by another terse statement fast: “Tuesday, 8pm EST.” Moscow time at three in the morning on Wednesday, April 8.
At the beginning of the war, Trump said the US goal was to “destroy the threat the Iranian regime poses to the United States and the entire world.” He also directly called on the Iranian people to overthrow the regime after it was weakened by US and Israeli air strikes. The regime has lost several of its key figures, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, but the authorities have survived. They closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of oil enters the global market. Prices began to rise rapidly – and after a few weeks, the actual goal of the war for the United States and its allies was no longer regime change in Iran, but opening the strait.
If not in a military sense, then in a political sense, Iran has seized the initiative: it now defines the “goal” of this war. Trump had two options: either compromise (reducing demands on Iran) or escalation in the hope of regaining the initiative. It appears he chose the latter.
Iran’s energy infrastructure is at risk. First, 79% of electricity generation He extends Gas power plants. They get most of their gas needs from the South Pars field in the Arabian Gulf. The gas processing and transportation infrastructure is mainly concentrated in the coastal city of Kengan, closest to the field. Strikes on Kengan could lead to serious fuel shortages for power plants.
Secondly, the largest cities and industrial centers of Iran are highly dependent on several very large power plants: Tehran (population – about 10 million people) – from the Damavand Thermal Power Station, the oil-producing province of Khuzestan (about five million people) – from the Ramin Thermal Power Station, Isfahan (about two million people) – from the Montazeri Thermal Power Station. If the United States carries out Trump’s threat, these will likely be its first targets.
The closure of the largest power plants does not in itself mean a nationwide blackout, but it is likely to cause major power outages and require widespread redistribution of loads across the national grid.
Iran has already promised to respond to attacks on its energy infrastructure with attacks on the critical civilian infrastructure of US allies in the Middle East. These are not only power plants, but also water desalination plants, without which Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates cannot live. These sites have previously been subjected to Iranian strikes – albeit intermittently.
It is unclear whether Iran will be able to significantly intensify its attacks on its neighbors: its stockpile of missiles is limited, and almost impossible to replenish. Even if it manages to destroy a power plant or a water desalination plant, the affected country will have a place to get help. Iran itself, if it loses a significant share of generation, will have nowhere to wait for help.
and Human rights activistsAnd politicians Within the United States of America and Farther from them They are already declaring that attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure would be a war crime. Trump does not respond to such slander. The Wall Street Journal He writes Citing sources in the White House, the plan for these strikes underwent a preliminary legal evaluation – and the president was convinced that he would not commit war crimes, because the Iranian military also used electricity.
It is unclear how attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure will help open the Strait of Hormuz. It is possible that the American leadership is counting on the fact that the Islamic Republic will feel increasing military pressure and will continue to surrender. But so far, as pressure has increased, the Iranian leadership has shown greater intransigence.