Donald Trump unexpectedly announced on March 23 that the United States was negotiating with Iran and was indeed on the verge of reaching an agreement to end the war. According to the president, “very good and productive talks” took place over the weekend of March 21 and 22.
The Iranian side denied the reality of the negotiations and insisted that Trump only made his statement to calm the market before the opening of trading on Wall Street and lower oil prices.
As it turns out, both sides underestimated and distorted it. by Information The Wall Street Journal said that there were no direct contacts between the United States and Iran. But a group of international intermediaries – Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan – managed to create an indirect channel of communication.
The main difficulty was finding a contact from the Iranian side. In recent months, this role has been filled by the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, a veteran Iranian politician, a representative of a very influential conservative clan and a confidant of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. But on March 17, he died as a result of an Israeli airstrike (Khamenei died on February 28).
Egyptian intelligence services were able to contact the leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and conveyed to them a proposal for a short-term ceasefire to begin dialogue.
On March 21 (which was actually March 22 Middle Eastern time), Trump said that if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz within two days, the United States would begin bombing Iranian power plants. The threat of attacks on civilian infrastructure was a major rhetorical escalation. The Middle East mediators informed the US President of their contacts with Iran – and he took advantage of this so that the rhetoric would not lead to a military escalation: the ultimatum was extended for five days.
how Reports The New York Times, citing unnamed American and Iranian sources, reported on Monday, March 23, that a direct conversation took place (apparently by phone) between Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
In the current situation, Araqchi is considered more of an artistic personality. He is not the one who makes decisions on the Iranian side. This was the case before, when Araqchi officially headed the Iranian delegation in negotiations with the United States in Geneva on the “nuclear issue” – but in reality, it was not he, but Larijani, who defined the Iranian position and led the negotiations.
At present, this role is likely to be played by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. This is one of the few surviving representatives of the highest Iranian elite. He served for many years in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in the period 1997-2000, with the rank of brigadier general, and commanded the Air Forces (missile forces) of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Then he was the mayor of Tehran, and ran for the position of President of Iran several times, and in 2020 he became the Speaker of Parliament.
Ghalibaf was a close friend of Qassem Soleimani, the longtime head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the architect of Iran’s network of proxies in the Middle East (Lebanese Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthis, Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah, and partly the Palestinian Hamas movement). Soleimani was killed by a US drone in Baghdad in 2020 – an action that US President Donald Trump personally approved. Ghalibaf also had friendly relations with Larijani, and was long viewed as his most likely successor as the de facto leader of Iran’s entire security apparatus.
Jerusalem Post He writesGhalibaf is the one who manages communications with the United States through intermediaries. Qalibaf himself DeniesIran is conducting any negotiations with the United States.
Both experts and representatives of the mediators, who agreed to speak with journalists on the condition of anonymity, are unanimous in their doubts: Even if US-Iranian negotiations take place, they are unlikely to lead to a quick agreement.
The initial positions of the parties in virtual negotiations are already generally known. According to Trump, the draft US agreement includes 15 points. The US President did not say exactly what it was. how It is clear The Atlantic: This is an amendment to the draft agreement that the two parties discussed in Geneva before the war. Most likely, the matter includes Iran completely abandoning uranium enrichment, limiting its missile program, ending its support for terrorist groups in the Middle East, and ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran, for its part, is demanding compensation for the damage resulting from the American and Israeli strikes, and says it intends to impose shipping fees through the Strait of Hormuz until it receives full compensation. The Islamic Republic also continues to insist that its nuclear program is purely peaceful, that its missile program is not subject to any restrictions not stipulated in international law, and that its relations with Middle Eastern factions are its sovereign actions. Iranian authorities have not yet announced any progress in these cases, at least publicly.
If a diplomatic breakthrough has occurred, it so far consists only in the fact that such a topic arose in the fourth week of the war. It is not yet certain that matters will reach real negotiations, let alone that they will lead to agreements to which all parties are committed. Islamabad is considered the most likely place for negotiations – and Pakistan is already prepared for it Agreed; The most likely participants are Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Abbas Araghchi and, in the future, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and US Vice President J.D. Vance. Estimated date is Friday, March 27th.