Since the beginning of the conflict with Iran, Donald Trump’s approval ratings have risen decreased To record its lowest levels since the beginning of his second term. The five-week war, which led to a two-week truce, hardly resembles a victory for the United States: Iran retained its enriched uranium and its theocratic regime, and it also gained control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil and gas trade routes. Against this background, as the New York Times noted, Trump began to be criticized even by the most loyal part of his voters – users of the social network Truth Social. The newspaper also found that Trump’s close advisors were skeptical about war with Iran from the beginning. But they did not dissuade the American president, relying on his intuition.
The United States declared itself the winner of the war with Iran. But at the moment it seems the opposite is true
The United States and Israel began air strikes on Iran on February 28. They killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and also attacked the Iranian army and navy. Iran responded by attacking US allies in the Middle East and closing the Strait of Hormuz, causing a global energy crisis. Trump has demanded the opening of the Strait, and has promised otherwise to strike Iran’s power plants, bridges and other critical infrastructure. He threatened the Iranians with “hell” and “the death of civilization.” After that, he concluded a truce with them for two weeks.
The objectives of the operation against Iran were vaguely formulated. In explaining why they started this war, Trump and his team talked about destroying Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, overthrowing the authority of the ayatollahs and “freedom for the Iranian people.” They were going to achieve this in a maximum period of a month and a half and without a ground operation. But after five weeks of war, Iran retained its enriched uranium reserves and theocratic regime, demonstrated its ability to harm US allies in the Middle East, and, most importantly, began to control the Strait of Hormuz, which was not the case before the war.
“In an attempt to prevent the development of weapons of mass destruction, the United States transferred weapons of mass destruction to Iran,” Ali Fayez, director of the Iran Project at Reuters, told Reuters. In his view, the ability to control the global energy market by closing the Strait of Hormuz gives the Iranian authorities even stronger influence than nuclear weapons can provide.
The truce somewhat calmed the panic in the global oil market, because it coincided with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. And yet he still is Forbidden. The Iranian authorities have already done so Announce About their victory in the war, they show no willingness to make concessions to the United States in negotiations. American authorities, which also They say As victors, they can resume hostilities, but this carries serious political risks for Trump.
The camp supported Trump in the war with Iran. But it is by no means unanimous
After the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran, several well-known MAGA representatives emerged to talk against this conflict. Podcast hosts Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson said Israel deceived the American people. Other right-wing commentators have expressed similar sentiments, such as podcasters Alex Jones and Joe Rogan, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, and former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Opinion polls ShowOrdinary US residents are largely opposed to war with Iran. However, the non-media portion of the MAGA camp supported her – which is curious, given Trump’s campaign promises to stop the fighting abroad. According to a poll conducted in mid-March, 8% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans overall, and 92% of Republicans who support Trump approved of conflict with Iran.
However, it has shown that even among his most loyal voters there is division over the war He studies The New York Times, published on April 8. The newspaper analyzed more than 40,000 comments under Trump’s posts about the conflict with Iran on his social network Truth Social – and came to the conclusion that Trump’s commentators react more negatively to this topic than to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.
This was particularly noticeable in a post Trump shared on April 5, the day Western Christian churches celebrated Easter. “Open up you crazy bastards, otherwise you will live in hell. You will see! – Trump wrote, ending the post with the phrase “Thank God.” Under it hundreds of critical reviews appeared, the authors of which, among other things, expressed their disappointment with Trump’s use of obscene language on Easter.
Another post that caused a severe negative reaction was published on April 7 a promiseAnd that Iranian civilization “will die tonight.” More than half of the commentators criticized Trump for these words. They were supported by the left (“This is a very sick person”). male Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer) and from the right (“Not a single bomb has fallen on America. We cannot destroy an entire civilization. This is evil and insanity,” – books Famed MAGA supporter Marjorie Taylor Greene).
Meanwhile, the truce with Iran, which Trump announced shortly after his aggressive post, did not please Truth Social commentators. Many of them accused the US President of backing down without getting anything important in return.
Many around Trump were also against the attack on Iran. But they did not argue with the president
Sources New York Times They say The White House was initially skeptical about the idea of conflict with Iran. According to the post, on February 11, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came to Trump and tried to convince him that now is the best time to attack Iran. Netanyahu said that the United States and Israel could destroy Iran’s missile program and change the regime by sparking a popular uprising.
“Sounds good,” responded Trump, who, according to the New York Times, has always viewed Iran as a particularly dangerous threat to the United States. The newspaper adds: “This was not usually said directly, but it always remained in the background: an additional motive was that Iran was planning to kill Trump in retaliation for the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, who was considered in the United States to be one of the main figures behind Iran’s campaign of international terrorism.”
However, American intelligence, after evaluating Netanyahu’s arguments, came to the conclusion that the goals he described could only be partially achieved. The United States and Israel are already capable of killing the Iranian Ayatollah and weakening the country’s military capacity. But causing an uprising and achieving the restoration of secular order in Iran is not. CIA Director John Ratcliffe described the regime change scenarios proposed by the Israeli Prime Minister in one word: “farce.”
Of the other members of the Trump administration, only Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth supported the war. Secretary of State Marco Rubio believes hostilities should be avoided, but he has not seriously tried to dissuade Trump from such actions. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kaine took a similarly cautious stance. He did not express his opinion directly, but he pointed out that the conflict with Iran would deplete the American weapons stockpile and lead to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump dismissed the second argument as unlikely: He believes the Iranian regime will surrender quickly.
The main skeptic of the attack on Iran turned out to be Vice President J.D. Vance. He said that this war would be very costly, would divide the Trump camp, lead to many casualties, and cause chaos throughout the Middle East. Vance also believes that the United States has no chance of changing power in Iran: the country’s leadership will be ready to do anything, because its existence will be at stake, as the US Vice President noted. But in the last meeting on the subject on February 26, he told Trump: “You know I think this is a bad idea, but if you want to do it, I will support you.”
Other participants in the meeting avoided outright objections. The New York Times wrote: “Everyone relied on the president’s intuition. They watched him make bold decisions, take unimaginable risks, and somehow emerge victorious.” The next day, February 27, Trump ordered the launch of an operation against Iran.