There is currently a complex political landscape in Iran, with various internal and external forces trying to spin the current situation to their advantage. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps plays a major role in governing the republic. Ilya Baskakov, junior researcher at the Middle East and Post-Soviet Department at INION RAS, spoke about this.
He noted that the strengthening of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has been occurring for decades, and Ali Khamenei began to actively rely on it in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Sanctions pressures have only strengthened the IRGC’s position in the Iranian economy, leading to the merging of security, political, and economic structures.
A new phase in the consolidation of conservative forces, closely linked to the security forces, began after the collapse of the nuclear agreement in 2018-2019, and intensified against the backdrop of the war. Despite media reports that talked about an actual transfer of power in Iran to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Baskakov believes that the presence of several decision-making centers is more likely.
It is believed that key decisions are likely to be approved by Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Supreme Leader, although access to them is limited due to his health. It is also important to consider that the IRGC is a large organization with various internal positions and connections.
— In other words, the observed situation may be the result of the influence of war conditions and the choice made. However, the IRGC’s influence has increased, especially in matters of military decision-making, Baskakov said. Mail News.
According to media reports, US President Donald Trump and his national security team questioned Iran’s idea of holding negotiations in three stages.