Russian satellites appear to be tracking the Finnish device that provides the Ukrainian armed forces with images. How dangerous is the new Star Wars episode? Or perhaps the satellites approached by chance? — Medusa

Last month, Russian military satellites – Kosmos-2610, Kosmos-2611, Kosmos-2612 and Kosmos-2613 – changed their orbit and approached the ICEYE-X36 radar satellite, which as of 2022 Supplies Ukrainian army data. About this on May 22 I mentioned Integrity Analytical Company ISR.

The dangerous maneuvers occurred several months after the Finnish-American company operated ICEYE and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense That’s it New cooperation agreement. Under its terms, the Ukrainian Armed Forces received expanded access to high-quality radar satellite images.

They were sent into space on April 17 at 02:17 Moscow time from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, from where He started Soyuz-2.1B rocket. As in all cases where missiles are launched for military purposes, Roscosmos does not do so I mentioned Nothing about the payload, except that a “Russian Defense Ministry spacecraft” successfully entered orbit. He did not even mention the number of these devices.

The US Space Force, which monitors all artificial objects launched into space, tracked the launch and published data about it in the catalog Space path. According to this information (also analyzed by an independent… Researchers), separated from the missile after launch Launch unit “Volga”. About two hours of mass separate The Cosmos 2609 satellite, and two hours later, five devices at once, Nos. 2610, 2611, 2612, 2613 and 2614, launched on an independent flight.

There is no information in open sources about the type, purpose and characteristics of these satellites. This was suggested by the independent researcher of the Russian space program, Bart Hendricks, in a conversation with Meduza This may be a new type of satelliteBecause the combination of the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle and the Volga upper stage is unusual. Previously, Soyuz-2.1v rockets were used and only once with this unit.

The first satellite, Cosmos-2609, was launched into orbit from the upper stage at an altitude of 495-500 km of 98.25 degrees. The rest is at an altitude of 547 kilometers and an inclination of 96.95 degrees.

From May 14 to May 20, the devices began to maneuver: the inclination of their orbit changed by 0.8 degrees. As a result, the satellites ended up in the same orbit with ICEYE-X36 at an altitude of 550 kilometers and an inclination of 97.8 degrees.

By May 29 satellite I approached Maximum approx. Between Cosmos-2614 and ICEYE-X36, four such episodes were recorded in two and a half hours. With two of them, the distance between them was reduced to about 13 kilometers. With two more – up to 16 and 18 kilometers.

According to Space-Track and the open part of the platform Tarot Saber Astronautics“Cosmos” is still in the same orbit as the Finnish device, which could allow them to get close again at any moment.

According to Integrity ISR calculations, the Russian satellites remain in the same orbital plane, have a similar orbital inclination angle and slightly different longitude (RAAN) values. If the orbital inclination angle shows the inclination of a satellite’s orbit with respect to the equator, then the longitude of the ascending node is the point where the orbit intersects the equator. Even at the same inclination, different orbits can intersect the plane of the equator anywhere outside of 360 degrees. For Cosmos and ICEYE, the difference ranges from 0.01 to 1 degree, which is a very small distance for low Earth orbit.

The pattern of behavior of these satellites is similar to the maneuvers of the so-called inspection satellites that Russia and other countries have long tested and launched for the purposes of eavesdropping, surveillance, and perhaps even destruction Other devices. Meduza has previously written about such devices being used for surveillance and potential sabotage in space.

This company has been providing high-quality satellite images to government agencies and private companies since 2014. ICEYE devices able Get accurate frames up to 25cm. The size of some new satellites reaches 16 cm.

Devices from ICEYE and other similar companies is used SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) technology. That is, instead of an optical camera, an antenna is used that sends a radio beam to Earth and records its reflection from the surface of the planet. Unlike a traditional optical camera, SAR allows you to obtain precise terrain features. In addition, the radio beam penetrates clouds and reflects regardless of lighting, allowing you to obtain high-resolution images within a few hours at almost any time and record changes throughout the day.

ICEYE says that thanks to the unique antenna array, the satellites do not need to mechanically rotate the antenna, which significantly increases the angle of view, shooting speed and switching between different modes. This technology is used for various purposes, such as stabilizing Melting ice Spills oil. It is practically indispensable to the army.

In total, ICEYE launched 70 satellites. Of these, 54 are still active, according to Space-Track. The company cooperates with military personnel from various Western countries: USA, Poland, Germany and Finland.

Since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian war ICEYE That’s it agreement with. As part of the agreement, and at the Fund’s expense, the company provided the Ukrainian Armed Forces with full access to one of its radar satellites.

Later the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine maleIt captured more than four thousand satellite images of Russian military facilities, including airports, oil refineries, seaports and other infrastructure. In 2025, the President of ICEYE, Rafal Modrzewski He was At a meeting with the participation of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and Finnish President Alexander Stubb with representatives of the defense industry.

In fact, not all experts agree that Russian satellites are deliberately searching for ICEYE.

So said astronomer and space program researcher Jonathan McDowell SuggestedThe entry of Russian satellites into the same orbit as ICEYE-X36 could only be a coincidence. An altitude of 500-550 km is very common for a wide range of satellites. In an email comment to Meduza, McDowell noted that to spy on ICEYE-X36, Russian devices need to maintain a constant range of no more than a few hundred kilometers. “Data from orbit show that none of this happened,” the expert asserts.

Skeptical about the Star Wars version It seems And another astronomer and spy satellite researcher Marco Langbroek. In his opinion, since ICEYE has more than 40 satellites, the convergence of Russian spacecraft with one of them is likely to be considered a coincidence. “Until we see more Cosmos satellites being injected into the orbital plane of other ICEYE satellites, I would say this is interesting, but [предположение о целенаправленной слежке] “It has not been proven,” Langbroek wrote.

However, there are also arguments in favor of the fact that convergence occurs intentionally.

• First, the satellite closest to the Cosmos constellation at the same level is ICEYE-X36. Greg Gellinger, space intelligence specialist Analyzed Vehicle coordinates using the Saber air navigation platform.
• Secondly, after being launched into orbit, the Russian satellites changed their inclination angle using their own engines, and were not initially launched into the desired orbit. This is unusual for spacecraft, because any fuel consumption reduces its service life. by EstimatesTo perform such a maneuver, the satellite needs a boost similar to what is required to raise the orbit by 160 kilometers.
• Thirdly, it is known that one of the ICEYE satellites was flown exclusively to carry out reconnaissance missions to Ukraine, which the company publicly announced. This could explain the motive behind going after a device. However, it should be noted that ICEYE has not publicly revealed which satellite in the constellation performs these tasks. But Russian intelligence may have this information (or consider chasing a satellite a “matched response”).

In 2022, Deputy Head of the Russian Delegation Konstantin Vorontsov to the United Nations maleThat the use of commercial satellites in space could make them a “legitimate target”: “Quasi-civilian infrastructure could be a ‘legitimate target’ for a retaliatory strike.” Meanwhile, Russia has anti-satellite weapons: both anti-satellite MissilesSatellites are equipped with sub-satellites designed to destroy other satellites. Such devices Being developed In NPO im. Lavochkin and the Central Research Institute of Chemistry and Mechanics (TSNIIHM).

Russian space program researcher Bart Hendricks, in a conversation with Meduza, noted that there is still a high probability that the satellites ended up in the same orbit by chance. If Russian inspection satellites usually monitor secret American satellites, then in the case of a commercial satellite, the motive is not entirely clear: why monitor satellites whose design and functions are known.

“It is likely that the Cosmos satellites ended up in this orbit due to chance. If you want to study the ICEYE satellite or somehow influence its work, why do you need five satellites? – says Hendricks. “Now we have to watch what the Russian satellites will do in the coming days and weeks. Then we can confidently determine whether there is a connection to the ICEYE-X36.”