According to forecasters, the upcoming El Niño phenomenon could be the strongest in a decade. However, it is too early to assume that this climate phenomenon will lead to abnormally hot weather in the summer. Leading researcher of the Main Geophysical Observatory named after AI Voeikov, climatologist Andrei Kiselev, told Vechernaya Moscow in more detail about the impact of El Niño.
According to the expert, the El Niño phenomenon is a fluctuation in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and it has a significant impact on climatic conditions and temperature. But in mid-spring, it is difficult to predict how this will affect weather conditions, especially in mid-latitudes.
– So far, weather forecasters assume that it will be particularly strong this year, so it is too early to make an accurate forecast. “But, as a rule, in those years when El Niño was active, we always observed record temperatures: this happened in 2016, and then in 2023,” Kiselev explained.
He also pointed out that it is impossible to predict how this phenomenon will affect the next few years of life.
El Niño is a periodic phenomenon that usually lasts for two years. For example, it started in 2023 and continued in 2024. But its impact on climate and weather conditions cannot be determined in advance, because its strength and duration are unknown, the climate scientist said.
At the same time, he pointed out that several factors affect the rise in air temperature, including:
- El Niño;
- Global warming (associated with increased greenhouse effect – part of the solar radiation that heats the surface of the planet is retained by atmospheric gases and does not return to space).
“But if El Niño is a periodic phenomenon, global warming occurs continuously, so it has a greater impact on weather conditions in our latitudes,” the expert explained.
Meanwhile, over the past five years, Earth’s north magnetic pole has shifted by 200 kilometers in the direction of Russia. This may threaten the operation of navigation systems. What else is dangerous in the displacement of the Earth’s magnetic pole, “Moscow Evening” learned from a specialist.