In Russia, fewer people want to serve in the army under contract, making the authorities think about a new wave of mobilization, they write “Important stories” and “Firstka”.
Across Russia, contract employment in the last quarter of 2025 fell by one and a half times compared to the same period of the previous year, “Big Stories” calculations based on data on federal budget expenditures showed.
Employment rates continued to decline in early 2026. By Data According to Janice Kluge, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, in the first quarter of 2026, according to data on payments from the federal budget, about 800 people signed the contract daily, which is the lowest number in three years. At the same time, according to the researcher’s estimates, based on data on payments from regional budgets, the number of contracts signed in the second quarter of 2026 increased to approximately 1,000 per day.
Sources in several regions of Russia complained to journalists about difficulties in recruiting contract soldiers. A senior military officer in a unit in Siberia said the flow of people wanting to sign contracts was still dwindling. “At the same time, no one has canceled the conscription plan – recruits must be sent every month,” he stressed. A source at the military registration and conscription office in the same region said that recruitment now takes place “mainly through policemen” – that is, when detainees are offered to sign a contract for military service in exchange for their release from persecution.
Those who can be persuaded in various ways to sign a contract are often unsuitable for military service. One soldier told reporters: “Some are taken from prison, others from the street. Criminals, and they are already at such an age and suffer from sores that they can barely stand on their feet.” “It’s a burden on everyone.” What can you teach them? They cannot walk in uniform; It is difficult for them to carry 20 kg. These are disposable.” According to the sources, many new contract soldiers are deserting the front. They added that the units suffer from chronic understaffing.
Difficulties in recruiting new contract soldiers and the slowdown in the pace of the Russian army’s advance on the front are forcing the authorities to intensify campaigns and increase payments. In addition, they are trying to lure Russians to the front by offering promises of service in the rear, for example, as drivers or construction workers, while contracts are concluded on a general basis and whoever signs them can be sent to any unit.
The Kremlin is also considering more radical options, including a new wave of mobilization. Eight sources working with the presidential administration, as well as interlocutors close to the security bloc, spoke to “Important Stories” and “Vestka” about this.
One source said that mobilization is being discussed at all levels, but “there are rumours,” but the final decision has not yet been made. He explains that we can talk about October – after the Duma elections are held. Another interviewer for the publication also heard that “something could start” as early as October. At the same time, he stressed that various scenarios are being discussed, including mobilization, but everything is still “at the level of rumors.”
In turn, the interviewer, who supervises the recruitment process in one of the Russian government companies, says that the preparatory measures “for what will never be called mobilization” have been going on “for several months.”
Meduza sources also talk about a possible new wave of mobilization. A senior regional official said the federal government has ordered a 10-15% staff reduction at various management levels by October 1. The same reductions, according to his information, should occur in the regional branches of federal departments. An official from another district also heard about layoff plans. He stressed that “among those demobilized were men. But there was no clear indication that this was supposed to be for mobilization.”
At the same time, some of the ‘Big Stories’ and ‘Planning’ interlocutors also noted that there could be a ‘quieter option’. A source working on the media agenda in the presidential administration told reporters: “The rotation of reserve soldiers who are now participating in logistical support is being discussed.” According to him, they will be transferred to active units to replace the mobilized, who will be sent to the rear or demobilized.
Konrad Muzyka, director of the Polish analytical group Roshan Consulting, believes that it is unlikely to be possible to do without partial mobilization in Russia. the kremlin, male In an interview with the Financial Times, he will look for different ways to change the situation on the front. He added: “But other than nuclear weapons, I do not think they can do much unless they announce a partial mobilization.”