How will artificial intelligence impact the labor market? The Wall Street Journal asked economists from leading universities, White House advisers and a Nobel laureate about this.

There is ample evidence that these workers will lose out and inequality will widen. Likewise, Chinese robot imports and deployments had long-term negative consequences because they were sudden and the jobs affected were concentrated in specific local labor markets.

It depends on the alternatives available to them. The development of switching technologies (for example, the advent of rotary telephones) immediately forced telephone exchange operators out of the market. This profession disappeared overnight. But young women who could have become telephone operators instead became stenographers, receptionists, and waitresses. This demonstrates the importance of flexibility in teaching and learning. People are global technology!

They will be assigned to other fields. We only see high unemployment rates and low wages when technological change causes an industry to disappear in a particular area from which people do not move.

If all goes well, we will become significantly more productive and perhaps richer. But how widespread these developments will be, and whether employees whose careers have been ruined will be able to successfully adapt to new conditions, does not depend on technology. It depends on the social institutions and policies we develop to distribute benefits and offset costs. The United States has no successful history in either. We are not ready for this now, and most signals from Washington and Silicon Valley say: let it be as it is and to hell with the consequences.

Based on historical data, if the changes are as big as I expect, workers will get very angry and change the political situation. But of course I have no idea! I don’t think we’ve ever seen anything like this develop on this scale and at this speed. This is going to be a crazy adventure!

We are now in a transition period. We see the potential of AI, but our regulatory systems have not yet fully adapted. Over the next five to 10 years, at least one leading company in each market will likely find a way to move to a more productive system solution. For example, instead of simply paying compensation after an accident, an insurance company may change its value proposition from “repair and replace” to “predict and prevent.”

The impact on the labor market will shift from speeding up operations to performing other tasks, which will require a major reorganization of human roles.

We don’t see clear labor market impacts yet, but I expect them to happen within five to ten years. Some jobs will become more skilled and better paying, with fewer people doing more complex work using better tools. Others will become more accessible as AI lowers the eligibility threshold for entry. For example, a nurse practitioner using diagnostic AI will be able to handle conditions that previously required physician input.

Technology will produce two well-studied effects on labor demand in a given industry. The first is to displace labor to produce products at a lower cost, thus lowering prices for consumers. This, in turn, will lead to a compensatory effect of increased sales and thus increased demand for labor.

I think that since AI is doing cognitive work, it is a revolution aimed directly at office workers. Now I understand what it was like to be a blue collar worker in the 70’s!

Experienced workers involved in routine information processing – settling insurance claims, translating documents, writing standard advertising texts – face a real risk of being fired. On the other hand, newcomers can benefit: AI can shorten the learning curve, allowing less experienced workers to achieve better results faster.

Perhaps, as many have predicted, young people will be hit hard first. But they are early in their careers, which gives them more time to move on to new jobs. Older workers who work one job for long periods and then lose their job may have difficulty finding a new job.

The professions that will benefit most from AI are those where the technology enhances expensive knowledge, such as diagnostic medicine, engineering, and scientific research. AI allows professionals to do more, faster and with fewer support staff. The jobs most at risk are those that reflect artificial intelligence: for example, jobs that process information broadly without deep specialization.

Let’s compare truck drivers and call center employees. These are large and roughly comparable groups, although truck drivers are disproportionately male and call center workers are disproportionately female, and as you can imagine, truck drivers earn much more. But displacing truck drivers requires replacing a large part of physical capital: the trucks themselves. It makes no sense to destroy this existing base, so current trucks will remain in service for another decade or two until the older generation makes way for their independent successors. Migrating call center employees only requires a software update.

Professions that require complex decision making – such as strategic planning, medical treatment, and scientific research – will develop rapidly. The professions at risk are those in which the main result remains a standardized knowledge product that can be reproduced by artificial intelligence: basic programming, routine accounting, or entry-level copywriting.

I’m fascinated by the potential of AI to democratize knowledge within companies, helping employees go beyond their direct experiences and expanding their skills in areas where they may need specialized help. Here are some examples. A junior employee learns how to interact with customers using an AI coach. A worker solves maintenance problems using artificial intelligence and without the involvement of experienced engineers. Research and development personnel integrate strategic AI thinking into their engineering work to provide innovative recommendations.

At least at first. This is the basic principle: If AI reduces the cost of mundane labor, it increases the value of everything else.

The proliferation of AI tools should serve as a wake-up call for work-from-home advocates.

Yes. As AI takes on more codified cognitive work, the priority will shift toward decision-making, persuasion, and coordination, capabilities that are inherently personal. Within organizations, AI is already creating winners and losers, and the ability to manage this process – building coalitions, overcoming resistance, and helping people adapt – will become increasingly valuable. These are basically the skills needed for interpersonal communication.

Personal and social skills will become more important. This is especially true if AI can be reused to work and collaborate with employees in the office.

Buying shares of artificial intelligence companies. joke! Critical thinking will still be critical. Try to become the most intelligent AI person in your business. So you are the one who will sense the potential and lead your company towards achieving it.

Stop teaching yourself forecasting skills. If you learn something that a machine can learn from historical data, your skills will be commoditized. Instead, focus on decision-making skills and AI literacy. Students: Focus on “higher” skills of identifying problems and making decisions (weighing trade-offs). Workers: Learn how to manage AI tools. The most productive workers will not be those who can program or write best, but those who have the ability to determine which AI results can be trusted and how to integrate them into the broader system. You should be the one who decides what to do, not the one who carries it out.

Continue to get an education. Historically, education has always been a good defense against new technologies. Educated people are more resilient, which is why education is essential for us and our children.

For young students, I recommend choosing a field that they have a real passion for. Given the uncertainty and change ahead, passion is what keeps you motivated to constantly learn and adapt. But combine this passion with a desire to experiment and master AI in your field.