The US Navy has begun closing the Strait of Hormuz, an important and almost irreplaceable sea route for energy supplies from the Middle East. In peacetime, much of the world’s fuel passed through it. On the first day of the war with the United States and Israel on February 28, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and bombed several oil tankers. This has led to higher oil and gas prices and stoked fears of higher inflation. On the night of April 8, Washington and Tehran agreed to a two-week truce. The US President described the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz as a condition for a ceasefire, but that never happened. After the failure of negotiations in Islamabad, Donald Trump announced that the United States would now close the strait. We tell you what the Western media write and what experts say about the situation around the Gulf of Hormuz.
What kind of blockade did Trump announce?
After negotiations with Iran collapsed, Donald Trump announced that the US Navy “will begin blocking any and all ships attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz.” According to the president, other countries, including Great Britain, will join the blockade. However, how He writes The Guardian London will not participate in the blockade.
Trump promised that the US military would begin removing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and anyone who attacks US ships or civilian ships “will go to hell.” He ordered the Navy to identify and detain ships in international waters that had paid fees to Iran to pass through the strait.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) later specificThe blockade will affect the ships of any country traveling to and from Iranian ports, as well as those passing through the coastal areas of Iran. The restrictions went into effect on April 13 at 10:00 ET (17:00 Moscow time).
At the same time, the United States will not interfere with the passage of ships heading to the ports of other countries and back through the main channel of the Strait of Hormuz.
What happens to the strait now?
Since the outbreak of hostilities in late February, Tehran has declared the strait closed and launched drone and missile strikes against oil tankers trying to pass through it without permission from Iranian authorities. In addition, Tehran has informed shipowners that the main channel of the Strait of Hormuz may be unsafe due to mines. But there is no evidence that mines were planted in the strait. Most Iranian mine throwers I sank At the beginning of the war. Meanwhile, Iran allows some tankers along its coast for a fee of $1 per barrel of oil transported. Ships are paid in RMB or cryptocurrency. how I mentioned US Central Command, ships sailing along the Iranian coast will now be detained by the US fleet.
On April 8, the United States and Iran declared a two-week truce. Trump described the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz as a condition for the agreement. Iran informed the negotiators that it would allow ten ships to pass through the strait daily. During the past 36 hours along the Iranian coast Pass Less than ten ships. For comparison: the day before the start of the war between the United States and Israel with Iran, more than 100 ships passed through the strait.
Total since the beginning of the war along this route Pass About 100 tankers, most of which transport Iranian oil products to China and India.
Why should the United States close the strait if it had previously called for it to be opened?
This is Trump’s attempt to seize the initiative after the failure of negotiations and deprive Tehran of control over the main lever of pressure – access to the Strait of Hormuz. He writes Financial Times.
Tehran uses the Strait as an advantage and a tool to influence negotiations with Washington. Iran’s decision to close the way to free shipping has caused severe economic damage to countries that depend on Middle Eastern oil and has led to higher energy and fuel prices around the world.
The risks of a protracted crisis and dissatisfaction with rising gasoline prices within the United States and in other countries are forcing the Trump administration to rush to end the war. They believe, especially on the eve of the midterm elections for the US Congress, which will be held in November CNN and “BBC”.
In addition, the US blockade aims to reduce Iran’s oil export revenues and limit its ability to finance military operations.
How will the blockade work?
According to experts, Respondents The Guardian reported that the US military was unlikely to use missiles or other weapons against the tankers due to the risk of an environmental disaster. The most likely option is for the US Navy to use threats to force the tankers to change course, and if that doesn’t work, it will send military groups to seize the ship. It is unclear what will happen next with the detained tankers.
The large US Navy presence in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz would give Trump the ability to intercept tankers. He thinks Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal. In particular, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, located in the Arabian Sea, could become a base for landing operations.
By the beginning of the war, the United States had eight destroyers in the region (how many there are now is unknown), which could also participate in blockades and repel Iranian air attacks. In addition, Washington could use the Coast Guard or special operations forces to seize the tankers.
April 13, I noticed OSINT analysts, UK Maritime Trade Operations Office (UKMTO), issued a warning to all ships in the area, informing them of the restrictions that will affect the coast of Iran. According to the report, neutral ships in Iranian ports were allowed to leave without hindrance. It has not been specified how long this “limited grace period” will last.
How will the blockade affect the economy? What will happen to the truce?
The Wall Street Journal and Financial Times They warn that the blockade could further destabilize global energy markets, lead to a new rise in oil prices, and threaten the already fragile truce.
First, it is unclear how Iran and its proxies will react to the blockade. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in response to Trump’s announcement of the blockade to cautionAnd that warships approaching the strait will be considered violators of the ceasefire and “will receive a firm and decisive response.”
If Tehran is backed into a corner by cutting off its ability to export oil, it may attack the spare energy export routes of other Gulf states. We are talking about the UAE oil pipeline to a port in the Gulf of Oman and the Saudi oil pipeline to a port on the Red Sea. Iran has already launched a missile attack on the Saudi oil pipeline on the eve of the truce. In return, Iran’s allies may try to close the vital shipping route off the coast of Yemen. He believes By Wall Street Journal.
On the other hand, the mere halt of Iranian oil supplies to global markets could also cause prices to rise in the short term. Notes The Guardian.
The Wall Street Journal believes that the blockade is the beginning of a new and very unstable phase of the American war with Iran, and now we are actually talking about an open attempt on the part of America to control the Strait of Hormuz. The post said: “The possibility of such a blockade could lead to a difficult confrontation in which it will become clear who has a greater margin of safety – Tehran or global markets.”
But if Trump’s plan succeeds, it would deprive Iran of its key leverage in negotiations with the United States and make the strait safe for global trade again. Reuters believes that this, in turn, will lower oil prices.
“Trump wants a quick fix,” Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official who now works at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told the agency. “But the reality is that such an operation is difficult to carry out alone, and its results are likely to be unsustainable in the medium to long term.”