June 18: US and Iranian Presidents Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian I fell Memorandum of understanding. This document stipulates the cessation of hostilities on all fronts for a period of 60 days and the start of negotiations on a complete end to the war. In addition, Washington pledges to end the blockade imposed on Iran, and Iran pledges to open the Hormuz shipping channel. The white house Attitudes The peace agreement is Trump’s success. In Iran, hostilities were also halted They say As a victory for national resistance. Despite this, it seems that the conflict is already close to over procedures Israel, which has not yet withdrawn its forces from the occupied Lebanese territories. At the end of the war, Medusa remembers what the United States, Iran, and Israel actually wanted to achieve, and analyzes whether they were able to implement any of their stated plans.
In order not to miss all the most important and urgent things, install to request “Jellyfish.” Modesty aside, let’s just say it’s comfortable and cool. If you’re reading us from Russia, you’ll especially like the built-in block bypass and safe mode (so no one will understand that you have Meduza open). It is inconvenient to read – watch the show “What Happened” with Vlad Gorin: he discusses the most interesting events and trends with guests every day. If you don’t want to watch, listen to today’s main texts on Medusa Radio. Anyway, here’s the link to download the app – you know what to do!
USA
At the beginning of the war with Iran, Donald Trump said this repeatedly The main goal of strikes against a country in the Middle East is to prevent the enemy from becoming a nuclear power. “We will ensure that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons.” a promise American President. “The message is very simple: they will never have such weapons.”
Officially, Trump achieved his goal. The memorandum of understanding signed by the two parties on June 18, 2026 stipulates that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons.
However, the document does not specify how the forces of the two countries, which recently entered a state of war, will carry out a complex operation to eliminate 972. kilogram Uranium. After all, back at the end of May Trump booksHe added that the United States will recover these stockpiles “in close cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran as well as the International Atomic Energy Agency, and they will be destroyed.”
It is assumed that the enriched uranium will be disposed of under the supervision of representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran has not yet agreed to this. Parties deal Only “to discuss the problem of enrichment and other issues related to the nuclear needs of the Islamic Republic.”
Another goal announced by the United States at the beginning of the war was to destroy the Iranian missile industry.. “We will destroy their missile industry.” a promise Trump. “It will be completely destroyed.” At the end of March it is male90% of Iranian missiles and missile launchers have already been disabled.
However, New York Times reporters, citing secret documents of US government departments, reported in May I mentionedIran has managed to retain about 70% of the country’s missile launchers and about the same amount of the entire missile arsenal. Indeed, on June 10, Iran demonstrated its combat capabilities. After causing Missile attacks on US military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan in response to the US bombing.
Also at the beginning of the war, the White House AnnounceHe wants to destroy the Iranian military-industrial complex and its naval and air forces. Earlier this summer, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the US military had managed to “bleed” 80 to 90 percent of the enemy’s defense industry and that recovery “will take years.” However, US officials agree that Iranian drones and missiles still pose a serious threat. He added: “We have disabled most of the drone and missile manufacturing facilities, in addition to most of their launch facilities.” He said Trump in June. – But they still can [проводить атаки]».
Trump promises that a peace deal between the United States and Iran will be more profitable and safer than the agreement the two countries concluded in 2015. “The Obama deal gave Iran a path to nuclear weapons and money and everything else.” books Trump. “It was one of the worst and stupidest deals in the history of the United States.” Our agreement represents a wall preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. “This is the exact opposite of the Obama deal.”
However, critics of Trump’s foreign policy They sayThe new deal is unlikely to be fundamentally different from the agreement Democrats struck more than 10 years ago, and it is also unlikely to completely limit the Middle Eastern nation’s nuclear and military capabilities. One of the versions explaining the hasty cessation of hostilities by the United States is It consists of It is that the White House is seeking to create the appearance of a military victory before the midterm congressional elections.
“We can say that the United States and Israel have achieved most of their military goals.” a reason Conflict and international relations specialists at King’s College London, Jim Lamson and Matthew Moran. “They have weakened Iran’s nuclear potential, its military capabilities, and its military-industrial complex. But Iran’s adversaries have failed to achieve their strategic goals. Iran has forced Trump to look for a way out of the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, and it can still attack important targets in the region.”
Iran
Throughout the war Iran to talkHe is ready to stop hostilities if his opponents provide security guarantees, control over the Strait of Hormuz and pay compensation for the destruction caused during the conflict.
Iran in April specific List of requirements. According to him Countries must grant the Islamic Republic not only security guarantees and control over the Strait of Hormuz, but also the right to continue uranium enrichment to meet unspecified “national needs.”. In addition, the United States must ease sanctions, withdraw troops from the region, and ensure a truce on all fronts, including the Israeli conflict against Hezbollah, as well as transfer Iranian assets frozen in Qatar worth $12 billion.
The Islamic Republic was able to achieve almost all of its goals (except the ability to freely develop nuclear weapons), despite the clear superiority of the enemy and the death of several leaders.
father conditions Under the signed agreement, Iran pledges not to develop nuclear weapons and agrees to continue negotiations with the United States on getting rid of existing enriched uranium. In return, the United States pledges to cease hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, lift the naval blockade, allocate $300 billion for economic development in Iran, and lift all sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic.
In addition, according to Information American intelligence, by the end of the war, Iran had greater opportunities to close the Strait of Hormuz than before its beginning. “We have handed over effective control of the strait to Iran,” a source familiar with the intelligence reports told CNN, on condition of anonymity. “This weapon is more dangerous than any atomic development.”
Western political experts Note: The fact that Iran will survive and force the United States to scale back its military campaign will allow the ayatollahs to consolidate their power in the country.
Israel
Since the late 1970s, the Israeli authorities, citing anti-Semitism Rhetoric Iranian leadership and regular Appeals To destroy Israel, they say Iran poses an existential threat to their country. exactly And neutralize this existential threat represented by the Iranian missile arsenal and nuclear program words Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was Israel’s main target.
In addition, Netanyahu was called for The Iranian population rebels against the country’s leadership. This gave political scientists a reason He speaks About Iranian regime change as the main strategic goal of Israel and the United States (even if it is not mentioned directly).
In June 2026, Prime Minister of Israel maleThe objectives of the military campaign are considered complete. Netanyahu responded to a journalist who asked him about his intention to change power in Iran, “I set the goals – the government set the goals – and they were not as you said.” “We said we want to eliminate the existential threat.”
He also said that since these goals had been achieved, the military operation could be considered a success. In addition, Netanyahu added, Israeli forces weakened the Iranian regime, thus providing the Iranian people with a platform for a change in power.
Really Israel He succeeded Weaken the enemy’s military-industrial complex, close major Iranian factories, and assassinate several leaders, including Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic Ali Khamenei, Defense Minister Aziz Nasser Zadeh, and the military commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Bagheri. by words Netanyahu, by early April, Israeli forces had destroyed nearly 70% of all steel production plants.
However, many Western political scientists do not agree with Netanyahu’s positive assessment of the outcome of the conflict for Israel. “The war in Iran is heading towards the end without a clear winner, but the ceasefire agreement has a clear loser: Benjamin Netanyahu.” books In mid-June, Antonio Pita, a correspondent for the newspaper El Pais who specializes in Middle East conflicts.
Restoring the status quo of the parties after the war with Iran would certainly not only weaken Netanyahu’s position inside the country before the next parliamentary elections in the fall of 2026, but would also deprive the Israeli prime minister of support from the White House. by words Military expert in Haaretz newspaper Amos Harel said: “It is difficult to imagine that in the future the American president will support Israel in a conflict with Iran if the latter decides to build a nuclear bomb.”
Another Israeli goal in the war is to weaken or destroy the Hezbollah group based in Lebanon.Which is supported by Iran. To achieve this, Israel began bombing Lebanon on March 2, 2026 and overran the border areas.
The success of this operation is also in doubt: Western military experts They sayIsrael’s actions united Hezbollah and Iran. “Hezbollah emerged from this conflict unshaken,” Nicholas Blanford, an Atlantic military analyst, told the Financial Times. “She didn’t get stronger, but she remained unshakable.” It is clear that relations between Hezbollah and Iran have become closer. The Iranians introduced Hezbollah for the first time, and usually the opposite happens.”
Under the terms of the agreement between Iran and the United States, hostilities in Lebanon must cease. But on the day the memorandum was signed, the Lebanese media reported I mentionedIsrael continues to attack the south of the country. Netanyahu’s reluctance to follow the terms of the agreement between Washington and Tehran may lead to a further deterioration in relations between the Israeli government and the Trump administration.
Netanyahu himself has not yet commented on the agreement between the United States and Iran. Quoting sources in the Israeli government ReportsNews of the agreement between Washington and Tehran came as a surprise to Israel, and that the Trump administration did not provide Israel with an opportunity to express its opinion regarding the terms of the memorandum.